After a short break for World Cup qualifiers, the Premier League returns this weekend with a full slate of matches, and value bettors should keep an eye out for two underdogs at excellent odds.
Wolverhampton Wanderers (+205) host Aston Villa at 10 a.m. ET on Saturday.
Wolves have been a nice surprise in their debut season under Portuguese manager Bruno Lage and are still in with a chance of qualifying for the Europa League with eight games remaining.
Wolverhampton’s modest success is mostly due to a tenacious defence that ranks fourth in the Premier League this season. Although the underlying analytics imply that Wolves will see some negative reversion, there is still much to appreciate about this defence, particularly against an Aston Villa offence that has been erratic during Steven Gerrard’s 18-match tenure. Villa have scored 27 goals under Gerrard, but their anticipated goals total stands at only 20.3, or an average of 1.13 per match.
In fact, virtually nothing distinguishes these two teams. Both sides tend to grind out outcomes and reduce matches to coin flips, so Saturday morning gamblers would be wise to support the home underdog at an attractive price.
Monday, 3 p.m. ET, Crystal Palace vs. Arsenal.
In Patrick Vieira’s first season at Selhurst Park, Crystal Palace have been nothing short of magnificent. The Eagles were projected to be relegation candidates at the start of the season, but they are now comfortably mid-table, despite the fact that their underlying metrics suggest they should be a few places higher.
While Wilfried Zaha, Conor Gallagher, Eberechi Eze, and Michael Olise provide plenty of attacking options for Palace, it is the defence that runs the bus in South London. Palace is among the Premier League’s top six in terms of anticipated goals surrendered, shots allowed, and significant opportunities conceded.
Despite a 4-7-4 (W-D-L) record at Selhurst Park this season, the Eagles have the fourth-most predicted points (xPoints) at home.
Along with their home record, the Eagles have shown a proclivity for giant-killing. Palace has a victory and a tie versus Manchester City, as well as a win and a draw against Tottenham and Arsenal.
Arsenal have been playing well since the holidays, but Palace will not be an easy match for the Gunners, and the Eagles have already proven to be a banana skin for a number of the Premier League’s big fish this season.
It’s impossible to pass up 3/1 odds on Palace at home, and if you’re feeling adventurous, a moneyline parlay with Wolves pays out 11/1.