According to an analysis of early results, Emmanuel Macron and Marine Le Pen are expected to advance to the second round of the French presidential election, setting up a rematch of the 2017 contest.
Macron, France’s current president, appears poised to win 28.6 percent of the vote in Sunday’s first round of the election, according to a poll conducted for French broadcasters TF1 and LCI by pollster Ifop-Fiducial. Le Pen, a long-serving standard-bearer for France’s far-right, is expected to finish second with 23.6 percent.
Twelve candidates competed for the top position. Due to the fact that none of them received more than 50% of votes in the first round, the top two candidates will face off in a runoff on April 24.
On Sunday in Lyon, central France, a woman votes in the first round of the French presidential election.
The contest was characterised by voter apathy, with voter turnout estimated at 73.3 percent, according to Ifop-Fiducial, the lowest in a first round in two decades. While Macron appears to be on track to win the first round, he is a divisive figure with a dwindling approval rating during his first term.
Macron urged voters to return for the second round in a post-election speech.
“Nothing is settled, and the debate that will take place over the next 15 days will determine the future of our country and Europe,” he said. “I do not want a France that, after leaving Europe, would have only international populists and xenophobes as allies. That is not who we are. I desire a France that is committed to humanism and the spirit of enlightenment “‘He stated.
Macron is seeking re-election to the French presidency for the first time since Jacques Chirac in 2002. While polls have consistently shown him to have a big lead over the field, the race has tightened significantly over the last month.
According to Ifop-Fiducial polling released Sunday, Macron would defeat Le Pen in a second-round matchup by a margin of barely 51 percent to 49 percent.
Support for Le Pen has gradually increased in recent weeks. Though she is best known for her far-right policies, which include severely restricting immigration and prohibiting Muslim headscarves in public places, she has run a more mainstream campaign this time around, softening her language and focusing on economic issues such as the rising cost of living, which is a top concern for the French electorate.
Le Pen pledged in her Sunday speech that if she wins the second round, she will be a president for “all the French,” and urged people who did not vote for Macron to support her in the second round.
Marine Le Pen greets her supporters following the first round of France’s presidential election on Sunday.
Third place went to socialist firebrand Jean-Luc Melenchon, who received 20.1 percent of the vote, according to early data analysis. Melenchon benefited from a late surge in support and was viewed as a probable dark horse candidate to take on Macron.
According to experts, who these voters choose in the second round could determine who wins the president. Melenchon advised his supporters that “we must not give Mrs. Le Pen a one vote,” but he did not officially endorse Macron.
According to the study, no other contender obtained more than 10% of the vote. Eric Zemmour, a far-right political analyst turned presidential contender who, according to Ifop polling, was among the top three candidates until March, finished fourth with 7%.
Candidate on the verge of defeat have rapidly thrown their support behind the top two. While Zemmour pleaded with his supporters to vote for Le Pen, the others pleaded with their supporters to avoid her.
Macron has already received support from candidates from the traditional center-left and center-right parties, the Socialists and Republicans.
Anne Hidalgo, the socialist candidate, claimed a Le Pen victory would inculcate in France “a hate of everyone against everyone,” while Valerie Pecresse, the Republican candidate, expressed genuine concern for the country, saying “the far right has never been so close to winning.”
“Marine Le Pen’s project will expose France to strife, powerlessness, and collapse,” Pecresse stated.
Rematch
Macron’s political ascension levelled the playing field, as his centrist political party drew followers away from established centrist parties such France the Socialists and Republicans. Both of its candidates polled below 5% on Sunday.
Prior to the race, polls indicated that a rematch between Macron and Le Pen was the most likely conclusion. Macron easily defeated Le Pen five years ago, but experts believe a rematch would be considerably closer than the 2017 race.
Macron is no longer a political upstart and must campaign on a patchwork of achievements. While his ambitious plan to strengthen the European Union’s autonomy and geopolitical clout earned him respect both abroad and at home, he remains a divisive figure on domestic issues. His handling of the yellow vest movement, one of the longest-running protests in France in decades, has been widely criticised, and his record on the Covid-19 pandemic is inconclusive.
Macron’s signature policy during the crisis – requiring people to show proof of vaccination in order to go about their daily lives – increased vaccination rates but enraged a vocal minority opposed to his presidency.
President Emmanuel Macron (centre), flanked by his wife Brigitte Macron (left), speaks with a resident prior to Sunday’s presidential election first round polling.
Macron has campaigned little thus far. According to experts, his strategy was to avoid political mudslinging as long as possible in order to project himself as the most presidential of all the candidates. Polling constantly showed him ahead of all other candidates, and he was considered a shoe-in to go to the second round.
According to Ifop-Fiducial polling released Sunday, Macron would defeat Le Pen in a second-round matchup by a margin of barely 51 percent to 49 percent.
“The broad unhappiness with Macron (particularly among the youth) implies an uncertain and unpredictable conclusion. Le Pen will continue to exploit this, which means that a major political upset is still possible “Dominic Thomas, a CNN European affairs specialist, said of the prospective second round contest.
“However much they despise Le Pen, she and Macron are poles apart in terms of how she will upset European and global politics.”
Le Pen has attempted to depict herself as a totally different candidate than the one who lost comfortably to Macron in 2017, when she attempted to position herself as France’s response to then-US President Donald Trump to the neglected French working classes. While Le Pen has maintained her economic nationalist attitude, views on immigration, euroskepticism, and positions on Islam in France, she has worked to extend her popularity.
At first, the election was expected to be a referendum on the extreme right’s dominance in French politics, but the war in Ukraine – another significant concern for voters – upended the race.
Macron has maintained a commanding lead in most surveys ahead of this year’s election. According to Ifop polling, his support peaked in early March, when potential voters gathered around the flag and thanked the president for his endeavours to resolve the Ukrainian dispute prior to Russia’s invasion, even though they were unsuccessful.
Numerous observers predicted that the war would also affect Le Pen, who had been a loud supporter of Vladimir Putin, the Russian president who has become a pariah in the West following the Kremlin’s decision to invade Ukraine in late February. Le Pen met with Russian President Vladimir Putin during her 2017 campaign, but was forced to withdraw a leaflet featuring a photo of her and Putin from that trip following Russia’s unjustified attack on its neighbour.
According to Thomas, CNN’s European affairs specialist, the upcoming debates will be critical if Macron is to convince voters that Le Pen’s earlier backing for Putin disqualifies her.
“He will be vulnerable on a variety of domestic problems, but she will struggle to convince voters of her foreign policy credentials, particularly given her extensive ties to Russia,” he added.