WASHINGTON, D.C. — California is aiming for zero-emission vehicles, including plug-in hybrids, to account for nearly 70% of new vehicle sales by 2030, as part of a state-mandated timeline to phase out new gasoline-powered cars and light trucks and reach 100% ZEV sales by the 2035 model year.
The California Air Resources Board’s ambitious proposal comes after the EPA reissued a Clean Air Act waiver in March allowing California to set its own auto tailpipe regulations and zero-emission vehicle mandates, reversing a Trump-era rule that sought to prevent states from doing so.
ZEVs and plug-in hybrids must account for 35% of new vehicle sales by the 2026 model year, 68% by 2030, and 100% by 2035. According to the California Air Resources Board, ZEVs accounted for 12.4% of the state’s new vehicle market in 2021.
According to CARB’s analysis, the proposed regulations would cost automakers $30.2 billion between 2026 and 2040, or $2 billion on average per year.
The Alliance for Automotive Innovation, which represents the majority of major automakers in the United States, stated that California’s plan requires “dramatic increases in EV sales,” and that the industry’s transition to electrification will require federal, state, and local government commitment.
“While automakers will undoubtedly work to meet whatever standards are ultimately adopted, these draught requirements will be extremely difficult to meet even in California and may be impossible to meet in all states that currently follow California’s programme,” the group stated.
CARB stated that the initial savings are “nearly immediate” for consumers and the cumulative savings over a ten-year period exceed $7,500 for the 2035 model year.
Between 2026 and 2040, the board estimates that the regulations will result in a reduction of 1,272 cardiopulmonary deaths, 208 cardiovascular hospital admissions, 249 respiratory hospital admissions, and 639 emergency room visits for asthma across the state.
Additionally, CARB stated that the regulations will reduce the state’s overall transportation costs, with an estimated total impact of $81.8 billion, or $5.9 billion on an annual average basis, between 2026 and 2040.
California’s proposed standards for reducing greenhouse gas emissions from vehicles are stricter than those finalised by the EPA in December — something the state is permitted to do under the reinstated waiver. Regulations must be approved by the EPA after they are adopted by the state’s Air Resources Board.
CARB will hold a public hearing on its proposal on June 9.
Sixteen additional states and the District of Columbia adhere to California’s stricter vehicle emission standards, accounting for more than a third of all light vehicle sales in the United States. At least 15 states have adopted California’s zero-emission vehicle programme.
The state’s proposal exceeds President Joe Biden’s nonbinding target of 50% new ZEV sales by the decade’s end.
Biden signed an executive order in December committing the federal fleet to zero-emission operation by 2035. President Obama has not mandated a phase-out of new gasoline-powered automobiles and light trucks.